Complexity of David

Data Science, Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence, Visualization, and Complex Systems.

Two Vaccines, More to Come

COVID19 IS BEATING THE CRAP out of this old world. In dealing with it we have seen both the best and the worst of humanity. We have two new vaccines. More are coming soon. I couldn’t be happier.

BUT THESE VACCINES come with a price attached. They are difficult to distribute. This makes vaccines a rich-people solution. They will face great difficulties to reach the poorest and remotest regions of the world.

THE WORLD HAS to decide on a joint strategy and a joint financing scheme. Without one, we will live with SARS-cov-2 for years to come. This will lead to reinfections. Vaccination (if immunity is not long) will be in constant need.

THIS IS HOW the pharmaceuticals will make profit. Not from the first season of vaccination. The world will pay and they won’t charge much (as not to loose the market for another company). But if COVID returns every winter, then that’s when they’ll have a gold mine in their hands. We will pay for these vaccines, or our taxes will. Either way the pharmas will get their pay.

COMPETITION at the levels predicted by pundits will not be real. Plenty candidate vaccines will dwindle. One thing is to come up with a vaccine, another is the ability to mass produce it and mass distribute it.

WHERE existing distribution channels will play big roles, smaller companies will struggle. Those with a head start will impose their technology. They will have better distribution and clamp down competition.

TWO mRNA vaccines are now on track to the public. The technology is novel. They will open the door for new drugs and treatments. Anything you can express with genetic material will be at hands reach. That poses great ethical challenges. Think about non-health related applications.